Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 19.216085 21.893445 24.772214 28.093247 31.814247 35.850154 40.554350
2025-02-02 15.489845 19.179321 23.446054 28.726867 35.067774 42.416114 51.555382
2025-02-09 13.234791 17.294880 22.215498 28.584323 36.572010 46.217972 58.703871
2025-02-16 11.382839 15.616383 20.967676 28.175464 37.569652 49.330730 65.092621
2025-02-23 10.168374 14.550431 20.293942 28.298288 39.076889 52.987961 72.182060
2025-03-02 9.244154 13.746632 19.845746 28.611552 40.766619 56.885789 79.708845
2025-03-09 8.392430 12.937512 19.286464 28.675588 42.051356 60.236011 86.597632
2025-03-16 7.562050 12.066385 18.545637 28.390601 42.777837 62.799776 92.471495
2025-03-23 6.995051 11.523225 18.215118 28.638857 44.230130 66.392499 99.897007
2025-03-30 6.658988 11.295550 18.319165 29.509986 46.605207 71.374991 109.498430
2025-04-06 6.088141 10.642757 17.719254 29.257561 47.264938 73.866318 115.554862
2025-04-13 5.326752 9.610539 16.444938 27.859454 46.073150 73.522121 117.345165
2025-04-20 5.070723 9.406329 16.485951 28.560594 48.202597 78.320330 127.180560
2025-04-27 4.839197 9.223576 16.546488 29.292477 50.415917 83.348226 137.601423
2025-05-04 4.463907 8.752038 16.084296 29.117644 51.135278 86.052574 144.487122
2025-05-11 4.086083 8.240719 15.512831 28.711725 51.435417 88.083259 150.367630
2025-05-18 3.829780 7.929625 15.263364 28.833336 52.607110 91.544634 158.661705
2025-05-25 3.625601 7.698271 15.135979 29.153112 54.119695 95.611135 168.088365
2025-06-01 3.401569 7.407953 14.878402 29.217866 55.182852 98.962737 176.452221
2025-06-08 3.148853 7.037591 14.444078 28.928109 55.595863 101.222268 183.058514
2025-06-15 2.986526 6.835778 14.311037 29.180590 56.977126 105.169765 192.653812
2025-06-22 2.911746 6.809098 14.511044 30.066681 59.542348 111.252713 206.129008
2025-06-29 2.710306 6.495695 14.127076 29.809923 59.987211 113.640457 213.274821